GDP Estimates for Richest Countries in 2009
Latest International Monetary Fund Wealth Predictions by Country
Jun 25, 2009
According to International Monetary Fund statistics published this past April, economies around the globe will shrink an average of 9.3% this year.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook database keeps track of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for 180 countries, serving as a vital signs monitor for the global economy.
IMF projections are notoriously conservative. One must consider that Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s recent forecast that the combined economies of its members will contract 4.1% this year. The World Bank estimates that the global economy will drop by 2.9%.
Credibility of IMF GDP Projections
The World Bank also said yesterday that Russia’s GDP will fall 7.9% this year, contrasted with the IMF’s 30.6% projected loss for the former Soviet Union. Still, GDP statistics from the World Economic Outlook database are close to what the Central Intelligence Agency World Factbook reports as official exchange rate GDP for each country.
Among the 30 wealthiest nations in the world, the IMF predicts that 20 countries will suffer double-digit losses. In addition to Russia, leading decliners are Sweden (down 25.9%), followed by Norway and Australia (each down 25.3%), and the United Kingdom (down 24.9%).
Top 10 Richest Countries by Estimated 2009 GDP
China, the world’s third-largest economy is set to grow its production by almost 10% this year. Because Japan will realize a more modest 1.4% gain, China is on target to leapfrog the Land of the Rising Sun and assume second place. The U.S. economy will contract 1.8% for 2009, and remain the richest nation on the planet in terms of GDP.
1. United States … US$14.003 trillion (down 1.8% from 2008)
2. Japan … $4.993 trillion (up 1.4%)
3. China … $4.833 trillion (up 9.8%)
4. Germany … $3.060 trillion (down 16.6%)
5. France … $2.499 trillion (down 12.8%)
6. United Kingdom … $2.007 trillion (down 24.9%)
7. Italy … $1.988 trillion (down 14.1%)
8. Spain … $1.397 trillion (down 13.3%)
9. Brazil … $1.269 trillion (down 19.3%)
10. Canada … $1.229 trillion (down 18.6%)
Top 20 Wealthiest Nations by Estimated 2009 GDP
India continues to make progress in 2009, up one place from the prior year. Overly dependent on oil and gas sales, Russia is notable by its absence from the IMF’s list of top 10 GDP nations principally due to falling oil prices. While lower energy revenues also impact Brazil and Canada, both nations own a more diverse basket of commodities which is why they remain in the top 10 as Russia’s estimated GDP plummets.
11. India … $1.186 trillion (down 2%)
12. Russia … $1.164 trillion (down 30.6%)
13. Mexico … $827.2 billion (down 24%)
14. Australia … $755.1 billion (down 25.3%)
15. Netherlands … $743 billion (down 14.5%)
16. South Korea … $727.1 billion (down 23.2%)
17. Turkey … $552.2 billion (down 24.3%)
18. Indonesia … $468.4 billion (down 8.5%)
19. Switzerland … $452 billion (down 8.2%)
20. Belgium … $433.5 billion (down 14.4%)
Top 30 Economies with Highest Estimated 2009 GDP
Among the remaining countries that round out the top 30 richest countries for 2009, Iran’s GDP seems to be the most insulated from the global economic pain. However, political instability in Iran may well result in a downward revision in that country’s final GDP report card.
21. Poland … $403 billion (down 14.4%)
22. Saudi Arabia … $374 billion (down 22.3%)
23. Austria …. $361.8 billion (down 12.9%)
24. Sweden … $359.1 billion (down 25.9%)
25. Iran … $343 billion (down 0.5%)
26. Norway … $340.7 billion (down 25.3%)
27. Taiwan … $333.9 billion (down 14.9%)
28. Greece … $325.2 billion (down 9.1%)
29. Argentina … $310.3 billion (down 4.9%)
30. Venezuela … $294.3 billion (down 7.9%)
Sweden’s resource-based economy is strongly oriented towards foreign trade and is heavily weighted in timber, hydropower and iron ore. On the other hand, petroleum products generate about half of Norway’s exports.
Both economies serve as examples of how the current slowdown in global trade may cause some of the world’s richest countries to lose over one quarter of their GDP this year.
